NFL History

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In the NFL, underdogs playing at home have a history of beating the spread.
If you look at NFL results from the last 20 years, some interesting trends emerge.

The most important trend is that home team underdogs cover the spread a disproportionate amount of the time.

In fact, they have beaten the spread about 55% of the time (that means they either won, or lost by less than the spread). In theory, a perfectly set point spread should result in 50-50 results between favourite and dog.

So, does this 5% error mean anything to us? Well, if you spent the last 20 years betting any underdog playing at home, you would have made between a 1.5% profit (against a dime line) and a 4% profit (against a nickel line).


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